TECHNO-REALISM AND AI-DRIVEN CYBER CONFLICT: A THEORETICAL ASSESSMENT OF TECHNOLOGY, INSTITUTIONS, AND STRATEGIC EFFECT

Abstract

International Relations theory has been unable to theorize technology fully, either because it is considered an exogenous input to material capability or because of its social saturation level and because its properties don't act independently but rather as a reflection of social meaning. This paper takes a purely theoretical look at techno-realism, a newish framework that posits the strategic impact of technology is channeled through the institutional and organisational identity of the state to which technology is applied or to which it belongs, as a possible fix for this problem. The paper reconstructs the key elements of the structural realism and offense-defense theory, the constructivism and the social-construction-of-technology tradition in science and technology studies, and critically analyzes the potential of techno-realism to provide a single coherent whole rather than merely a label for constructivist findings. It sees the conception of techno-realism, not as a total merger of realist and constructivist commitments, but as a justifiable, if less ambitious, theoretical division of labour, realist in its explanandum, both institutionally and partly ideationally responsive in its description of mechanism. The paper, building on this reading, outlines five theoretical research agendas for AI in cyber conflict in particular, outlining the questions that the applied literature in the field has not yet fully developed.